Nigeria: Bola Tinubu must reckon with history after picking his running mate

Nigerian history is repeating itself. Almost three decades ago, Moshood Abiola, a Yoruba Muslim from the south-west, won the 1993 presidential elections in what was meant to signal the end of a decade of military rule.

But the generals led by Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha annulled Abiola’s victory triggering five years of bitter contestation.

Now Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the favourite to win Nigeria’s presidential elections next year, is remarkably similar to Abiola. The candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) Tinubu is a Yoruba Muslim, a billionaire, and hails from the south-west. And like Abiola, Tinubu is a talented political networker.

The similarities do not end with ethno-religious identity. Tinubu will face the same religious controversies that Abiola faced 30 years ago. Like Abiola, Tinubu has picked another Muslim from the north-east as his running mate: Kashim Shettima, a senator for the ruling APC  and a former governor from Borno State.

Next year’s election will test the inter-twined relations between politics and religion in Nigeria. It may also reveal whether Tinubu has more political “street smarts” than Abiola – who won an election but never made it to the presidential palace.

‘Persecuted targets’

Expecting Nigerians to ignore geo-religious sentiment and vote for the best candidate would be naïve in a country where a third of the country’s states have implemented Sharia law. Vice President Yemi Osinbajo is a pastor in the country’s biggest Pentecostal church and his boss is a devout Muslim. Over the past decade governments have presided over a worsening security climate in which Islamist insurgent fighters have killed over 35,000 people and displaced another 2 million people.

Both Christians and Muslims view themselves as a persecuted targets. Christian grievances flared last month after gunmen (whom Christians assume were Islamist insurgents) burst into a church and shot 50 people dead.

Religion is so woven into Nigeria’s identity that an academic nicknamed it the “Pentecostal Republic“. There are many multi-faith countries but Nigeria is the only one whose population is almost equally split between Christians and Muslims.

Nigeria’s sectarian cleavages are one reason why the mainly Christian south and mainly Muslim north have alternated in the presidency for the past 23 years since the return to civil rule in 1999.

“Zoning” the presidency between the north and south is intended to “give everyone a go” at the presidency.

In reality it works in a binary way: a northern Muslim President would be teamed with a southern Christian as vice president – or vice versa.

The emergence of a southern Muslim or northern Christian presidential candidate disrupts this foundational tenet. It almost guarantees religious controversy.

As a southerner, Tinubu had to choose a northern VP. Whomever he chose, the religious affiliation of Tinubu’s running mate is almost certain to alienate a vast geographic or religious constituency.

Abiola faced this same problem prior to the 1993 election.

Troubled by the enormity of the decision, Abiola delayed the choice of his running mate as he consulted widely.

Fans of Tinubu will point out that Abiola won the 1993 election although both he and his running mate Babagana Kingibe were Muslims.